Finally, the much awaited iOS Update has arrived. As described in the previous post this Update is considered to be a bug fix for me and many users of the alarm clock - but of course - Apple would not issue an update for such "minor" thing only.
And so, iOS 4.2 comes with Airprint and wireless (Video) streaming to compatible Client such as the Apple TV Box GameCenter and more - just in time for Black Friday and the coming Shopping Season.
And even more importantly iOS 4.2 brings all of this to the iPad as well and puts it - for the first time since launch - completely in sync with the latest iPhone. It brings Folders, Multitasking and Game Center to the iPad which makes it "a totally new device" as somebody prominent from Cupertino is quoted.
(Apple recently has lost just a little sense of reality it seems, as they have touted the Beatles iTunes release as "a day you will never forget" (!))
C´mon guy´s you make great things but too much is too much.
Anyway, with all major and minor things fixed and a feature packed new iOS everything is ready to mark just another record sales and earnings quarter.
I have heard analysts who express "doubts" that the elevated expectation of 6m iPads shipped in Q4 could be reached.
They base these doubts on Samsung having to downwardly adjust Galaxy tab production capacity.
Make no mistake - the iPad is simpy so much superior and not by any chance the "whichlist item #1" for the current holiday shopping season.
Oprah Winfrey is said to have given 275 iPads as a gift to all of her staff recently - if that tells anything..
According to a recent post from John Paczkowski Apple has ordered FoxConn to ramp up additional capacity at the Chengdu Site to 300k/month in order to reach a total of 2.8m (monthly) runrate.
Apple has shipped 4.2m iPads in Q3, Analyst consenus is 6m in Q4 (with few exceptions as mentioned above who think this might be a stretch goal.)
My stomach and market feeling tells me it will be rather in the 6.5m to 7.5m range.
My newest 12month price target for the stock is now 415$ based on continuing strong growth on iPhones, iPads (completely offsetting the decline in ipods) a continuing growth in market share for Macs (as dominance in mobile devices has a positive drag effect on PCs) Apple isn´t anymore the niche maker of design PCs that only Graphics Pros and Photographers really need, it´s becoming main stream.
And last not least the tightly controlled App-Universe creates an ever money machine - a growing revenue stream from software that scales extremely well and has margins well beyound those a hardware maker could ever dream of.
Stay tuned...
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
The Iphone Alarm Clock DST Bug - and how to fix it.
Yes, I have got it too. And yes I WAS late Monday after the Daylight Savings Time (DST) Change in Europe.
Apperently all iPhones 3G, 3GS, iPhone4 and iPod Touches 2nd through 4th generation are affected by a software bug that rings alarm clocks 1h late after the DST time switch.
The internal clock (which is also the source for the built in (alarm) clock as well as third party alarm clock apps) is adjusted correctly but internal alarms WITH a REPEAT SCHEDULE setting are NOT.
They go off 1h late. Deleting and reprogramming the alarm doesn´t help.
The only fix is to RECONFIGURE alarms to NO REPEAT setting - which effectivly sets them to "daily" as long as they are activated.
And finally of course apply the Apple iOS bug fix for this which is in the works (I have heard a "Gold Master" ist out already.).
The bug has been first found in New Zealand and Australia (who were first to switch back from DST to "Winter time". Then Europe was hit beginning of this week - and the US will suffer next Monday Nov. 8th - IF, and only IF (fingers crossed) Apple will not be able to supply the fix "JUST IN TIME" on this very weekend. We can only assume that Apple engineers are working feverishly to publish the fix before 10 millions alarms will fire off late on Monday.
Right now (as I write this 8h50 CET New York time) there is no Update available yet in iTunes.
What will be the economic impact?
Here´s a first approximation:
Around 90 Million iPhones or so are out (not counting all the ipod Touches), let´s assume 40% of those are used in the USA. Let´s further assume 20% of the users do use the alarm clock and rely on it. Let´s estimate that being an hour late to work creates an economic impact of 25$ (Machinery not operated, Calls not answered, shipments not expedited, flights missed etc.). This adds up to 250Mio$ economic damage on Monday not counting the hours 50 million users will spend time to find out the cause, browse the internet for solutions, time spent finally with iTunes to apply the fix etc.
Another hour per user which could have been spent productively otherwise to increase the GDP is certainly a conservative estimate. Makes another 1.25 Billion $ (!) Together 1.5b$ - conservatively...
Small cause - big impact.
 |
| iPhone Alarm Clock Bug "in Action". |
Apperently all iPhones 3G, 3GS, iPhone4 and iPod Touches 2nd through 4th generation are affected by a software bug that rings alarm clocks 1h late after the DST time switch.
The internal clock (which is also the source for the built in (alarm) clock as well as third party alarm clock apps) is adjusted correctly but internal alarms WITH a REPEAT SCHEDULE setting are NOT.
They go off 1h late. Deleting and reprogramming the alarm doesn´t help.
The only fix is to RECONFIGURE alarms to NO REPEAT setting - which effectivly sets them to "daily" as long as they are activated.
And finally of course apply the Apple iOS bug fix for this which is in the works (I have heard a "Gold Master" ist out already.).
The bug has been first found in New Zealand and Australia (who were first to switch back from DST to "Winter time". Then Europe was hit beginning of this week - and the US will suffer next Monday Nov. 8th - IF, and only IF (fingers crossed) Apple will not be able to supply the fix "JUST IN TIME" on this very weekend. We can only assume that Apple engineers are working feverishly to publish the fix before 10 millions alarms will fire off late on Monday.
Right now (as I write this 8h50 CET New York time) there is no Update available yet in iTunes.
What will be the economic impact?
Here´s a first approximation:
Around 90 Million iPhones or so are out (not counting all the ipod Touches), let´s assume 40% of those are used in the USA. Let´s further assume 20% of the users do use the alarm clock and rely on it. Let´s estimate that being an hour late to work creates an economic impact of 25$ (Machinery not operated, Calls not answered, shipments not expedited, flights missed etc.). This adds up to 250Mio$ economic damage on Monday not counting the hours 50 million users will spend time to find out the cause, browse the internet for solutions, time spent finally with iTunes to apply the fix etc.
Another hour per user which could have been spent productively otherwise to increase the GDP is certainly a conservative estimate. Makes another 1.25 Billion $ (!) Together 1.5b$ - conservatively...
Small cause - big impact.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Star Watching / the ultimate astronomical guide
Who ever tried to take pictures of stars ( astronimical night sky photos) knows how difficult this can be.
Trying to get the moon and other stars or planets on the same image demonstrates the HDR problem to its extremes. The moon on a clear night is magnitudes brighter than anything else on sky.
The following picture shows the night sky Sep. 21st in Central Europe GMT 23h. Jupiter is visible following the near full moon in it´s left side.
Without any HDR processing, with a Nikon 28-110mm zoom at 50mm, f6.3, 1/400 sec, 640 ISO it is hardly acceptable (Jupiter is the tiny spot on the left!) - Moon is overexposed with no structures and chances to spot the moons of Jupiter are zero - at least with this low cost lens.
But what was really fun taking this picture is a new tool that renders all previous star charting tools obsolete:
Vitotechnology´s new Starwalk App for iPad is a true brakethrough for the occasional sky watcher, and a required vacation app. (because the night sky in foreign countries/continents can be quite impressive).
The situation of the photo looks like this in Starwalk:
You see that also Uranus is directly next to Jupiter - and as a newbie - if you had any doubts what the bright "star" next to moon was Starwalk teaches you that it is Jupiter both very close to the ecliptic (dotted) line the virtual path of the sun.
This situation zoomed out looks like this
The horiozon for orientation and zodiac sign overlays provide a new way to watch and understand the sky. Each item is clickable with additiona information - and the whole thing is of course interactive on the 3GS, iphone4 and iPad. You can "point" to sky and the chart adapts accordingly. You have to see this to believe it.
If not for anything else the Starwalk App makes the iPad a required item on vacations in the mountains, desert or on cruise ship tours.
Trying to get the moon and other stars or planets on the same image demonstrates the HDR problem to its extremes. The moon on a clear night is magnitudes brighter than anything else on sky.
The following picture shows the night sky Sep. 21st in Central Europe GMT 23h. Jupiter is visible following the near full moon in it´s left side.
 |
| Regular Nikon D90 50mm Photo: Moon followed by Jupiter (left side) on Sep. 21st, Central Europe 23h GMT South-East |
Without any HDR processing, with a Nikon 28-110mm zoom at 50mm, f6.3, 1/400 sec, 640 ISO it is hardly acceptable (Jupiter is the tiny spot on the left!) - Moon is overexposed with no structures and chances to spot the moons of Jupiter are zero - at least with this low cost lens.
But what was really fun taking this picture is a new tool that renders all previous star charting tools obsolete:
Vitotechnology´s new Starwalk App for iPad is a true brakethrough for the occasional sky watcher, and a required vacation app. (because the night sky in foreign countries/continents can be quite impressive).
The situation of the photo looks like this in Starwalk:
You see that also Uranus is directly next to Jupiter - and as a newbie - if you had any doubts what the bright "star" next to moon was Starwalk teaches you that it is Jupiter both very close to the ecliptic (dotted) line the virtual path of the sun.
This situation zoomed out looks like this
Star Walk Info Screen on Sun/Moon/Primary Planets Rise and Set times - a bit overloaded graphically but very useful for a quick overview.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
IFA 2010 - 3D revolution or marketing hype?
This year´s comprehensive IFA Posting covers the following topics
About IFA
IFA (Internationale Funktausstellung) has evolved into one of the leading Consumer Electronics Shows on the globe, probably outpacing CES in Las Vegas. This may seem odd for an audience in the States but there are several data points to prove it:
IFA is massive, yet yery compact and therefore effective for visitors.
The Berlin Messegelände (trade show fairground) is one large gigantic campus - like CeBIT in Hannover und much unlike the Hotel suite hopping that you have to do at CES.
More that 1400 international Exhibitors and 134 thousand square meters filled exhibition space will attract more than 350.000 visitors. This does of course include private persons.
There are two main success factors:
1. the perfect time in the year allows vendors to launch products at IFA for the holiday season. More and more global players make use of that opportunity.
2. The concept to positively embrace the interest of the private consumer and to allow private visitors to access the trade show. Business visitors pay 37€, private visitors only 15€. Business users get access to the Conference program and also a badge that identifies them as business users.
CeBIT on the contrary has partially tried to disencourage private visitors by high entrance fees and CES and 3GSM are for business insiders only by definition.
And last, not least Berlin is an attractive place to visit - with all the infrastructure and benefits that a leading capital can offer.
3D Television
The 3 most important topics and dominating trends this year have been
This beautiful Rolleiflex from 1931 is on display at the Rollei booth demonstrating their 80 year background with 3D imaging.
Panasonic even used a newly invented trade show accessory: an adjustable 3D glass holder
Otherwise glasses have to be touched - some of the more classic approaches at Loewe or Grundig required new jobs as "Glass Cleaning Hostess". Expect to have these at all future Consumer Electronics trade shows - (as long as visitors don´t bring their own shutter glasses)
The group 3D experience at the Panasonic Video wall.
Technology - wise 3D TV is settled around LCD shutter technology. Everybody (Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Grundig, LG etc) uses active LCD shutter glasses triggered and sychronized by an Infrared signal from the TV.
I tried several displays and found substantial differences - though totally subjective and not truely comparable as different vendors had different demo content on their booths.
The effect is generally really impressive and very close to the movie theater 3D experience in IMAX theaters.
However, before buying a 3D TV, do yourself a favor and watch AVATAR 3D in the theater - in full length.
Then decide yourself how many times a week and how many hours a day you would want that sensation.
It is a great experience and 3D@home truely works - but is is a different kind of viewing. It is stressful in a sense and you probably don´t want that all the time. Once or two times a week, a single movie or documentary might be ok. More is not. It´s like a cream pie or glass of champagne. You don´t want to miss these things on special occassions but you can´t live from it and you don´t want these extra luxuries every day.
This is my subjective opinion, but as an expert for consumer trends I predict it will turn out to be a mainstream opinion as time goes by.
Therefore, 3D is currently overrated -it is a hype and the bubble will burst.
3D Technology will be there to stay, don´t get me wrong. The incremental cost - once developed . is minimal. 3D will be a checklist item on future TVs and BlueRay Players, but the audience will not shift viewing habits towards a "3D takeover trend" or anything close to it.
Much unlike HD - the previous industry megatrend. Once you migrated to HD, you wouln´t want to ever go back and watch lower resolution SD content instead. HD is a mainstream paradigm shift, and 3D IS NOT.
This answers also the question whether a just recently aquired HD home theater system is already obsolete because it is not 3D capable. It is not.
Grant yourself the occasional sensation of a 3D feature lenght movie by going to the box office every other week or so.
Next time you upgrade your home theater equipment - it will be 3D capable if you like or request it or not. Until then content is so rare that by going to the movies once a week you have seen each relevant 3D title anyway.
3D works on some content better or worse. It does work on documenteries, slow pan and zoom, impressive pictures of landscape and wildlife, no quick cuts, no extreme action. It may work an sports, but quick cuts and fast switching of camera angles confuse and make you dizzy. It works on close ups when things "stick out". Yes, you guessed it - 3D will work on adult entertainment - or 3D porn to be more direct. There is no such thing on display at IFA but it can be easily extrapolated that this is going to be one the content categories that will help 3D to grow.
3D Games
3D in Games has - I believe - an even greater importance than 3D Television.
This has several reasons:
Gaming is in many cases single player activity (with regards to interacting with the equipment). Massive Multiplayer Games or online Teamplay with one Person per indiviual PC is technically a single Player activity. Deciding to wear shutter glasses to make the experience even more immersive is more likely and logical. Immersiveness is all what counts in virtual reality. 3D adds an extra step forward. 3D content is easily available as all Game Engines are essentially full 3D worlds and each picture is actually a 2D down-rendered image of this Computer Generated reality.
Instead of rendering just one 2D image, any Game Engine can be easily modified to be viewed with "Stereoscopic 3D Cameras". This makes high quality 3D content almost the rule rather than the exception. The graphics card along with shutter glasses can provide all that is needed so you DO NOT need a 3D TV to enjoy 3D Gaming - this is true for PC Gaming.
However, for Console Gaming (Xbox 360, PS3) you are again in the 3D TV world. Sony will upgrade the PS3 with firmware to support 3D BlueRays and 3D PS3 game titles will require the same 3D-TV and shutter glasses setup that is needed for classic TV content.
I tried a racing game at the panasonic booth and can only agree that immersiveness and the brain illusion of "being in the action" is just great.
For reasons of completeness I have to mention the new Nintendo DS with 3D without glasses - the most recent attempt to revive the lagging Console business of Nintendo. I have not tried or seen it yet - if you have a comment about the 3DS it is appreciated.
Apple has recently announced that the iPod Touch (as a portable game console) has outsold the PSP and Nintendo DS combined and it is questionable wether the 3DS will be able to revert that.
3D Home made Conent / Photography and Camcorders
The Panasonic VW-CLT1 3D Full HD Camcorder
on display and shooting a live juggling performance
and the Aiptek3D i2
represent the low and high end of the current 3D Camcorder offerings for consumers.
Test movies and images of the Aiptek can shortly be downloaded from my Gallery website.
Making 3D Movies of your vacation might be a nice gimmick - but is it a mainstream trend? I doubt it.
User Generated content can also be published and supported by Youtube - this is not new. Experiments can be made by using the search term "yt3d:enable=true" on Youtube. Stereoscopic content will be listed. Expect to see Google TV Android implementations on TV Sets to directly support Home made 3D content on 3D TVs.
Finally it should be mentioned that all those shutter glasses from different vendors are not compatible to each other. If you want to watch a 3D movie at home together with friends an neighbors they have to bring their glasses - but ONLY if they have same TV vendor (!).
This is seen as a welcome window of opportunity for XPanD.
Their Universal 3D Glasses work with any of the current 3D TVs, according to a test of c´t magazine with Sony even better than their own glasses. I tried XPand on two different Models - it worked fine!.
They are expected to be available on retail for 129€ or $ very soon.
Hybrid Internet TVs, STBS and HbbTV
As mentioned before, 3D is this year so dominant, that the other "megatrend" comes only after a long distance after 3D. "Hybrid TV" means the inclusion of Web Based content, VoD, Widgets, Web based Apps and Video Platforms on the the TV screen.
There have been - for years - several approaches to this:
- Microsoft believed a PC needs to be in the living room
- Intel and Fujitsu as well as Shuttle tried to make the PC small and look like a Hifi System.
- More recently hybrid Set-Top-Boxess with small footprint Linux implementations offered Web Access, often combined with a VoD-Service
- Every time the opportunity to create a walled garded is hard to resist and proprietary vendor portals have appeared
- Content owners like the major Studios and TV stations were confused, they did not want to miss the opportunity but feared to lose more control than neccessary.
In this confusing developing environment the German TV industry has lead an european initiative to create an open standard for web content on TVs and still preserve the content rights and interests of the TV stations.
The resulting HbbTV (Hybrid broadcast broadband TV) has become an approved EISA standard in July 2010. Driven by the German Public Television and their technical advisory organisation IRT (Institut für Rundfunktechnik) it is now deployed and in service. It so competes with Samsung´s "Yahoo Widges", Panasonic "Viera Cast" and Sony´s "Internet TV" as well as with Loewe´s "Media TV" and Philips´s NetTV - and more importantly with Apple TV and Google TV which was not display at IFA (at least I didn´t find any relevant exhibit).
Content is king, and based on this universal truth there is a good chance that the vendors mentioned will have to rethink their strategies to embrace the German public TV Mediatheken (7 day catchup content).
HbbTV is an API that defines how Web Content can overlay live TV - IF (and that is a key aspect) the broadcaster allows any such overlay. This effectivly means the broadcaster is in control over any web content that is overlayed on his live stream - which is a good to control the business model.
This is best explained looking at one of the leading HbbTV implementations which is the ARD Mediathek, the ARD HD Videotext and program specific EPG.
It further includes a signaling path and adressability to make the advertiser´s dream come true:
Broadcast ad campaigns with direkt personalized conversion and feedback.
Here SES Astra CEO Ferdinand Kayser views a demo of the "Red Button" in action. A Volkwagen TV Ad offers a "sign up for a test drive" Red button overlay (signalled through DVB). Pushing the red button on the remote takes the user to web landing page with a TV optimized layout. Here the user interact get more info on the car, view videos and submit the form to actually register for test drive.
As the STB has an active Web session the user is instantly addressable.
Signaling an initial Menu is also done over DVB. This way the broadcaster has full control over the additional web overlay content, alternatively web pages like vendors portals can always be brought up directly independent of any DVB stream or program but only as full screen and not as overlay.
Navigating into the content brings up the 7 day catchup content (above), the new HD Videotext content and the EPG (below)
What looks like classic TV overlay graphics produced by the video chipset is actually HTML Web content retrieved through TCT/IP - the internet channel of the hybrid HbbTV Set-Top-Box (a HUMAX Box is used here for demo purpose).
Above is the Station specific (!) EPG screen - the beauty of the Broadcaster controlled content offering shows its limitations here - an EPG which does by definition not feature any competing content is somewhat questionable in it´s usefulness.
Analog Switchoff
The 30th of April 2012 has been set as the switchoff for analog broadcasting for German Television.
As a service to consumers who are not sure if they are "digital" or not, as special Videotext page has been set up.
Page 198 in the ARD or Bayern3 programs is split during broadcasting so that the digital path display a confirming text "yes, you are digital", while the analog path explains that viewing this page means that the equipment is analog and will not work after April 2012.
Summary and Prognosis on Hybrid TV
From what I have seen at this year´s IFA - and based on many years of experience with the iTV development - I make the following prognosis:
There are 3 major movements or trends:
1. Apple TV - an exception to rule. Apple TV is NOT hybrid - it is simply an additional IP-Box. It is centered around the user experience to optimize two very specific use cases:
- Watching Hollywood Movies on demand (in HD or 3D if you like)
- Using your own content (photos, movies) with seamless integration of your mobile devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch).
- Apple will like before dominate these categories - best integration, ease of use, overall user experience. No open standard, a reletavily cheap box, not integration with live TV no Pause TV.
Apple will be supplemental to any other hybrid or Pause TV solution you have (TiVO, Comcast etc.)
2. Google TV - not released yet, therefore it can not be finally rated or categorized. But with Android being "the new Windows" ( the domination OS of this century), Android based STBs and TV integration is a likely candidate to become a defacto standard. It has to be seen how Google TV protects content interests and business models
3. HbbTV in this context is not likely to become a world standard - but parts of it -the interaction of broadcast and Web content - the signaling of DVB to call a web page is a likely candidate to be embraced by Google TV in future revisions. Therefore I expect that Google TV and HbbTV will evolve to reach a final level that embraces both.
- Vendor solutions like Viera Cast and Philips Net TV will evolve into standard Web offerings for Google TV and/or HbbTV. They will coexist for some time and then evolve as Web based vendor portals. (similar to AOL from being a proprietary walled garden to becoming just another web portal.)
For consumers this means that any of todays hybrid solutions is still a short lived intermediate. Watch for Google TV in 2011 and getting an Apple TV box in additon will be no mistake. Apple TV (the NEW one, as of Sep. 2010) is much more mature, but does not even try to be hybrid - it is meant to be supplemental and as such lives outside the hybrid evolution.
- About IFA
- 3D Television
- 3D Gaming
- 3D Photography and 3D Home movies
- Hybrid Internet TV - the HbbTV Standard
- Analog TV Switchoff in Germany
- Summary and Prognosis on Google TV, Apple TV and European HbbTV
About IFA
IFA (Internationale Funktausstellung) has evolved into one of the leading Consumer Electronics Shows on the globe, probably outpacing CES in Las Vegas. This may seem odd for an audience in the States but there are several data points to prove it:
IFA is massive, yet yery compact and therefore effective for visitors.
 |
| IFA Main entrance "East" at the ICC and Funkturm |
More that 1400 international Exhibitors and 134 thousand square meters filled exhibition space will attract more than 350.000 visitors. This does of course include private persons.
There are two main success factors:
1. the perfect time in the year allows vendors to launch products at IFA for the holiday season. More and more global players make use of that opportunity.
2. The concept to positively embrace the interest of the private consumer and to allow private visitors to access the trade show. Business visitors pay 37€, private visitors only 15€. Business users get access to the Conference program and also a badge that identifies them as business users.
CeBIT on the contrary has partially tried to disencourage private visitors by high entrance fees and CES and 3GSM are for business insiders only by definition.
And last, not least Berlin is an attractive place to visit - with all the infrastructure and benefits that a leading capital can offer.
3D Television
The 3 most important topics and dominating trends this year have been
- 3D TV
- Hybrid TV and HbbTV
- more 3D ;-)
 | |
| Rolleiflex 4x4 from 1931 |
This beautiful Rolleiflex from 1931 is on display at the Rollei booth demonstrating their 80 year background with 3D imaging.
Panasonic even used a newly invented trade show accessory: an adjustable 3D glass holder
 |
| Hygienic 3D Glass holder solution at Panasonic |
The group 3D experience at the Panasonic Video wall.
 |
| Panasonic 3D Video Wall - IFA 2010 |
Technology - wise 3D TV is settled around LCD shutter technology. Everybody (Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Grundig, LG etc) uses active LCD shutter glasses triggered and sychronized by an Infrared signal from the TV.
I tried several displays and found substantial differences - though totally subjective and not truely comparable as different vendors had different demo content on their booths.
The effect is generally really impressive and very close to the movie theater 3D experience in IMAX theaters.
However, before buying a 3D TV, do yourself a favor and watch AVATAR 3D in the theater - in full length.
Then decide yourself how many times a week and how many hours a day you would want that sensation.
It is a great experience and 3D@home truely works - but is is a different kind of viewing. It is stressful in a sense and you probably don´t want that all the time. Once or two times a week, a single movie or documentary might be ok. More is not. It´s like a cream pie or glass of champagne. You don´t want to miss these things on special occassions but you can´t live from it and you don´t want these extra luxuries every day.
This is my subjective opinion, but as an expert for consumer trends I predict it will turn out to be a mainstream opinion as time goes by.
Therefore, 3D is currently overrated -it is a hype and the bubble will burst.
3D Technology will be there to stay, don´t get me wrong. The incremental cost - once developed . is minimal. 3D will be a checklist item on future TVs and BlueRay Players, but the audience will not shift viewing habits towards a "3D takeover trend" or anything close to it.
Much unlike HD - the previous industry megatrend. Once you migrated to HD, you wouln´t want to ever go back and watch lower resolution SD content instead. HD is a mainstream paradigm shift, and 3D IS NOT.
This answers also the question whether a just recently aquired HD home theater system is already obsolete because it is not 3D capable. It is not.
Grant yourself the occasional sensation of a 3D feature lenght movie by going to the box office every other week or so.
Next time you upgrade your home theater equipment - it will be 3D capable if you like or request it or not. Until then content is so rare that by going to the movies once a week you have seen each relevant 3D title anyway.
3D works on some content better or worse. It does work on documenteries, slow pan and zoom, impressive pictures of landscape and wildlife, no quick cuts, no extreme action. It may work an sports, but quick cuts and fast switching of camera angles confuse and make you dizzy. It works on close ups when things "stick out". Yes, you guessed it - 3D will work on adult entertainment - or 3D porn to be more direct. There is no such thing on display at IFA but it can be easily extrapolated that this is going to be one the content categories that will help 3D to grow.
3D Games
3D in Games has - I believe - an even greater importance than 3D Television.
This has several reasons:
Gaming is in many cases single player activity (with regards to interacting with the equipment). Massive Multiplayer Games or online Teamplay with one Person per indiviual PC is technically a single Player activity. Deciding to wear shutter glasses to make the experience even more immersive is more likely and logical. Immersiveness is all what counts in virtual reality. 3D adds an extra step forward. 3D content is easily available as all Game Engines are essentially full 3D worlds and each picture is actually a 2D down-rendered image of this Computer Generated reality.
Instead of rendering just one 2D image, any Game Engine can be easily modified to be viewed with "Stereoscopic 3D Cameras". This makes high quality 3D content almost the rule rather than the exception. The graphics card along with shutter glasses can provide all that is needed so you DO NOT need a 3D TV to enjoy 3D Gaming - this is true for PC Gaming.
However, for Console Gaming (Xbox 360, PS3) you are again in the 3D TV world. Sony will upgrade the PS3 with firmware to support 3D BlueRays and 3D PS3 game titles will require the same 3D-TV and shutter glasses setup that is needed for classic TV content.
I tried a racing game at the panasonic booth and can only agree that immersiveness and the brain illusion of "being in the action" is just great.
For reasons of completeness I have to mention the new Nintendo DS with 3D without glasses - the most recent attempt to revive the lagging Console business of Nintendo. I have not tried or seen it yet - if you have a comment about the 3DS it is appreciated.
Apple has recently announced that the iPod Touch (as a portable game console) has outsold the PSP and Nintendo DS combined and it is questionable wether the 3DS will be able to revert that.
3D Home made Conent / Photography and Camcorders
The Panasonic VW-CLT1 3D Full HD Camcorder
on display and shooting a live juggling performance
and the Aiptek3D i2
represent the low and high end of the current 3D Camcorder offerings for consumers.
Test movies and images of the Aiptek can shortly be downloaded from my Gallery website.
Making 3D Movies of your vacation might be a nice gimmick - but is it a mainstream trend? I doubt it.
User Generated content can also be published and supported by Youtube - this is not new. Experiments can be made by using the search term "yt3d:enable=true" on Youtube. Stereoscopic content will be listed. Expect to see Google TV Android implementations on TV Sets to directly support Home made 3D content on 3D TVs.
Finally it should be mentioned that all those shutter glasses from different vendors are not compatible to each other. If you want to watch a 3D movie at home together with friends an neighbors they have to bring their glasses - but ONLY if they have same TV vendor (!).
This is seen as a welcome window of opportunity for XPanD.
Their Universal 3D Glasses work with any of the current 3D TVs, according to a test of c´t magazine with Sony even better than their own glasses. I tried XPand on two different Models - it worked fine!.
They are expected to be available on retail for 129€ or $ very soon.
Hybrid Internet TVs, STBS and HbbTV
As mentioned before, 3D is this year so dominant, that the other "megatrend" comes only after a long distance after 3D. "Hybrid TV" means the inclusion of Web Based content, VoD, Widgets, Web based Apps and Video Platforms on the the TV screen.
There have been - for years - several approaches to this:
- Microsoft believed a PC needs to be in the living room
- Intel and Fujitsu as well as Shuttle tried to make the PC small and look like a Hifi System.
- More recently hybrid Set-Top-Boxess with small footprint Linux implementations offered Web Access, often combined with a VoD-Service
- Every time the opportunity to create a walled garded is hard to resist and proprietary vendor portals have appeared
- Content owners like the major Studios and TV stations were confused, they did not want to miss the opportunity but feared to lose more control than neccessary.
In this confusing developing environment the German TV industry has lead an european initiative to create an open standard for web content on TVs and still preserve the content rights and interests of the TV stations.
The resulting HbbTV (Hybrid broadcast broadband TV) has become an approved EISA standard in July 2010. Driven by the German Public Television and their technical advisory organisation IRT (Institut für Rundfunktechnik) it is now deployed and in service. It so competes with Samsung´s "Yahoo Widges", Panasonic "Viera Cast" and Sony´s "Internet TV" as well as with Loewe´s "Media TV" and Philips´s NetTV - and more importantly with Apple TV and Google TV which was not display at IFA (at least I didn´t find any relevant exhibit).
Content is king, and based on this universal truth there is a good chance that the vendors mentioned will have to rethink their strategies to embrace the German public TV Mediatheken (7 day catchup content).
HbbTV is an API that defines how Web Content can overlay live TV - IF (and that is a key aspect) the broadcaster allows any such overlay. This effectivly means the broadcaster is in control over any web content that is overlayed on his live stream - which is a good to control the business model.
This is best explained looking at one of the leading HbbTV implementations which is the ARD Mediathek, the ARD HD Videotext and program specific EPG.
It further includes a signaling path and adressability to make the advertiser´s dream come true:
Broadcast ad campaigns with direkt personalized conversion and feedback.
 | |
| IRT Managing Director Dr. Illgner-Fehns demostrates HbbTV interactive TV Ads to SES Astra CEO and Presdent Ferdinand Kayser |
As the STB has an active Web session the user is instantly addressable.
 |
| ARD HbbTV initial DVB menu |
 |
| Mediathek (7 day TV catchup) navigation screen |
Navigating into the content brings up the 7 day catchup content (above), the new HD Videotext content and the EPG (below)
 | |
| HD Videotext / HbbTV based |
 |
| ARD EPG Navigation screen |
Above is the Station specific (!) EPG screen - the beauty of the Broadcaster controlled content offering shows its limitations here - an EPG which does by definition not feature any competing content is somewhat questionable in it´s usefulness.
 |
| Morgenmagazin Anchor man Jens Lorig explains the benefits of the ARD Mediathek |
Analog Switchoff
The 30th of April 2012 has been set as the switchoff for analog broadcasting for German Television.
As a service to consumers who are not sure if they are "digital" or not, as special Videotext page has been set up.
 |
| Analog Switchoff service page - ARD Videotext Seite 198 |
Page 198 in the ARD or Bayern3 programs is split during broadcasting so that the digital path display a confirming text "yes, you are digital", while the analog path explains that viewing this page means that the equipment is analog and will not work after April 2012.
Summary and Prognosis on Hybrid TV
From what I have seen at this year´s IFA - and based on many years of experience with the iTV development - I make the following prognosis:
There are 3 major movements or trends:
1. Apple TV - an exception to rule. Apple TV is NOT hybrid - it is simply an additional IP-Box. It is centered around the user experience to optimize two very specific use cases:
- Watching Hollywood Movies on demand (in HD or 3D if you like)
- Using your own content (photos, movies) with seamless integration of your mobile devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch).
- Apple will like before dominate these categories - best integration, ease of use, overall user experience. No open standard, a reletavily cheap box, not integration with live TV no Pause TV.
Apple will be supplemental to any other hybrid or Pause TV solution you have (TiVO, Comcast etc.)
2. Google TV - not released yet, therefore it can not be finally rated or categorized. But with Android being "the new Windows" ( the domination OS of this century), Android based STBs and TV integration is a likely candidate to become a defacto standard. It has to be seen how Google TV protects content interests and business models
3. HbbTV in this context is not likely to become a world standard - but parts of it -the interaction of broadcast and Web content - the signaling of DVB to call a web page is a likely candidate to be embraced by Google TV in future revisions. Therefore I expect that Google TV and HbbTV will evolve to reach a final level that embraces both.
- Vendor solutions like Viera Cast and Philips Net TV will evolve into standard Web offerings for Google TV and/or HbbTV. They will coexist for some time and then evolve as Web based vendor portals. (similar to AOL from being a proprietary walled garden to becoming just another web portal.)
For consumers this means that any of todays hybrid solutions is still a short lived intermediate. Watch for Google TV in 2011 and getting an Apple TV box in additon will be no mistake. Apple TV (the NEW one, as of Sep. 2010) is much more mature, but does not even try to be hybrid - it is meant to be supplemental and as such lives outside the hybrid evolution.
IFA Special - How to finally legalize Google Street View in Germany
Today, Tuesday Sep.7th is Google day at the IFA consumer electronics show in Berlin. Eric Schmidt is giving his keynote speech as he is on a "Goodwill tour" to Germany and France.
Germany the country of "Street View - Opponents" has seen an almost hysteric discussion in the media and caused Google to respond with double page Ads in the leading "Spiegel" News magazine.
It all didn´t help very much though - Germans are overly suspicious and reluctant to allow street view photos to go online.
The current "opt-out" compromise is half hearted and does not apply existing legislation literally.
This current legislation knows something called "Panoramafreiheit" which means that anything can be photographed (and such photos be used commercially) what can be seen from public ground with normal eyes and no additional equipment used.
Any regular photographer can be sued if he uses a ladder to photograph the house or garden at the other side of the street. Likewise it is not legal to take pictures from an apartment at the opposite side.
Explicitly an "elevated standpoint" does render the Panoramafreiheit invalid.
Such photos - and more so the commercial use of those - do require a property release contract. This is mandatory and not optional.
If Google is treated like anybody else would be, all those Google Street view pictures are simply illegal - and opt out is not what the law means. Opt in - Home owners would have to actively allow these photos in for each and every property would be according to existing regulation.
Here my solution:
Instead of a "lex Google" (specific exceptions just for Google), I strongly plead for a more relaxed handling of the issue. Google is not evil and Street view is useful service that does not aim to inflict with our privacy.
The problem is that these car mounted cameras are at 2,90m height which means that they can peek over fences and they do constitute what is meant with "additional equipment" in the law.
This would be it. Easy. Now everything is in order again. Google Street View is complete legal - covered by German Panoramafreiheit - of course, Faces and Car registrations must be blurred (like before).
With this adaption to general legislation every photographer could rightfully claim the same rights as Google. Which means taking photos by means of using ladders is now allowed - also shooting from the first floor of opposite appartements - 3 Meters - this would be the guiding threshold.
And if this is not going to happen, the only consequent alternative would be for Google to repeat shooting German streets with modified cars: Camera mounts not higher than 1,80m. This would be covered by Panoramafreiheit as it is.
 |
| IFA icon Funkturm Berlin in 50 year anniversary outfit |
Germany the country of "Street View - Opponents" has seen an almost hysteric discussion in the media and caused Google to respond with double page Ads in the leading "Spiegel" News magazine.
It all didn´t help very much though - Germans are overly suspicious and reluctant to allow street view photos to go online.
The current "opt-out" compromise is half hearted and does not apply existing legislation literally.
This current legislation knows something called "Panoramafreiheit" which means that anything can be photographed (and such photos be used commercially) what can be seen from public ground with normal eyes and no additional equipment used.
Any regular photographer can be sued if he uses a ladder to photograph the house or garden at the other side of the street. Likewise it is not legal to take pictures from an apartment at the opposite side.
Explicitly an "elevated standpoint" does render the Panoramafreiheit invalid.
Such photos - and more so the commercial use of those - do require a property release contract. This is mandatory and not optional.
If Google is treated like anybody else would be, all those Google Street view pictures are simply illegal - and opt out is not what the law means. Opt in - Home owners would have to actively allow these photos in for each and every property would be according to existing regulation.
Here my solution:
Instead of a "lex Google" (specific exceptions just for Google), I strongly plead for a more relaxed handling of the issue. Google is not evil and Street view is useful service that does not aim to inflict with our privacy.
The problem is that these car mounted cameras are at 2,90m height which means that they can peek over fences and they do constitute what is meant with "additional equipment" in the law.
So the solution is simply to extend "Panoramafreiheit" paragraph and interpretation to ... everything that can be seen from public ground including elevated standpoints of up to 3m.
This would be it. Easy. Now everything is in order again. Google Street View is complete legal - covered by German Panoramafreiheit - of course, Faces and Car registrations must be blurred (like before).
With this adaption to general legislation every photographer could rightfully claim the same rights as Google. Which means taking photos by means of using ladders is now allowed - also shooting from the first floor of opposite appartements - 3 Meters - this would be the guiding threshold.
And if this is not going to happen, the only consequent alternative would be for Google to repeat shooting German streets with modified cars: Camera mounts not higher than 1,80m. This would be covered by Panoramafreiheit as it is.
Friday, September 3, 2010
HDR Photos and Facetime on the new iPad with iOS 4.2
Transscript and interpretation of the Apple Special Event, Sep. 1. 2010
Steve Jobs has disclosed - willing or unwillingly - an interesting new feature on future iPads:
HDR Photos on the iPad with iOS 4.2 due in November.
HDR [High dynamic range] photos has been demonstrated as a new feature of iOS4.1.
The iPhone and the newly released iPod Touch 4th generation with Cameras (both front and back) can take multiple exposures of a scene and auto-correct using HDR blending.
Effectively HDR is a method of dealing with the "low dynamic range" problem of displays, printers and paper.
Again Apple is setting a trend that everybody will follow: Expect Auto-HDR processing soon in consumer-cameras all over the place.
Steve Jobs has againg delivered one of his legendary high profile product presentations in San Francisco, however he seemed a bit unconcentrated this time. He made several small errors (like calling shuffle a nano), so it is speculation, if it was an unwanted error or rather an inadvertent disclosure of future iPad product specs when he said the following during the iOS 4.2 Sneak Peak Demo:
--- Beginning of quote
"I have got a little surprise for you today: It´s a sneak peak at the next iOS release 4.2. 4.2 is coming a little later this year and it is all about iPad. It is bringing everything to iPad. All from iOS 4.1 with it´s multitasking, it´s folders, game center, HDR photos, everything you saw here, everything to iPad. Wireless printing, we are adding wireless printing to iOS and we are adding something really cool which is called "Airplay"....]
----End of quote
Now how can "HDR Photos" live, exist, function on an iPad. Well, once taken and processed an HDR Photo is just a photo. There is only one way this statement makes any sense:
The new iPad is going to have camera lenses built in! It will likely be available together with the iOS 4.2 release release in November.
Speculating further, it is extremely likely that the iPad has a front facing camera as well. This will make it a Facetime device, which is critical as Facetime is still a proprietary "on-Net" feature. If you happen to own an iPhone4 you will have noticed that there are just not enough iPhone4 users out there yet to really take advantage of Facetime. This will and has to change.
Facetime will continue to be an "Apple - World" network-feature, perfectly designed to work as a viral marketing scheme. It works between iMacs, Iphone4s (NOW ipod Touches) and SOON iPADs. That will be it.
This way Apple positions itself again successfully at the forefront of consumer electronics innovation. This very week (beginning of September) the IFA Consumer Electronics Show in Berlin [practically the german equivalent of the CES] demonstrates a massive lineup of "iPad Killers" or rather "wanna-be´s". Android is a challenge, no doubt - and Samsung is most aggressive with tabled PC offerings.
However if you look closer at hybrid TV´s, internet connected TVs, different Tivo-like STB concepts and compare that to the clear statements that Steve Jobs has made regarding what they learned from a 4 year mediocre Apple-TV performance and acceptence you will find that Apple is again just one major step further ahead:
The new Apple TV includes a major paradigm shift: Is has no more local storage, it is no longer a syncing device, it does no longer support purchasing content on the TV.
At 99$, I predict, it will be a big hit this time and Steve will no longer call it a "hobby" next year.While the majority of players at the IFA believes in TVs and STBs with large hard disks [the "TIVO concept"], Apple now believes in a pure streaming concept for the living room.
However, Apple believes (and I agree) that People don´t want another computer in the living room, they don´t want to manage media on yet another device.
The way this streaming is made to work, the extreme ease of use and integration with other products of the familiy is again making all the difference.
Watching a show on the iPad or iPod touch, and the continuing this on the big screen TV has never been so easy and straight forward. Touching the loudness button offers a "stream this on Apple TV" option. Hitting it will instantly continue to play the media on the big screen. As simple as that.
None of any of the displayed products at IFA 2010 come anywhere close.
This is the reason why I have again upgraded the price target for Apple stock on the TREFIS DCF model:
It is now set on 327$ as a price target, which is still rather conservative.
Optimistically Apple is going to be a 500$ company within the next 36 months.
That means the best way to finance your next Apple product is simply to buy some stock. I.e. if you buy only 50 shares of Apple stock, an increase of of only 10$ USD buys you an iPad. It is that simple!.
Steve Jobs has disclosed - willing or unwillingly - an interesting new feature on future iPads:
HDR Photos on the iPad with iOS 4.2 due in November.
HDR [High dynamic range] photos has been demonstrated as a new feature of iOS4.1.
The iPhone and the newly released iPod Touch 4th generation with Cameras (both front and back) can take multiple exposures of a scene and auto-correct using HDR blending.
Effectively HDR is a method of dealing with the "low dynamic range" problem of displays, printers and paper.
Again Apple is setting a trend that everybody will follow: Expect Auto-HDR processing soon in consumer-cameras all over the place.
Steve Jobs has againg delivered one of his legendary high profile product presentations in San Francisco, however he seemed a bit unconcentrated this time. He made several small errors (like calling shuffle a nano), so it is speculation, if it was an unwanted error or rather an inadvertent disclosure of future iPad product specs when he said the following during the iOS 4.2 Sneak Peak Demo:
--- Beginning of quote
"I have got a little surprise for you today: It´s a sneak peak at the next iOS release 4.2. 4.2 is coming a little later this year and it is all about iPad. It is bringing everything to iPad. All from iOS 4.1 with it´s multitasking, it´s folders, game center, HDR photos, everything you saw here, everything to iPad. Wireless printing, we are adding wireless printing to iOS and we are adding something really cool which is called "Airplay"....]
----End of quote
Now how can "HDR Photos" live, exist, function on an iPad. Well, once taken and processed an HDR Photo is just a photo. There is only one way this statement makes any sense:
The new iPad is going to have camera lenses built in! It will likely be available together with the iOS 4.2 release release in November.
Speculating further, it is extremely likely that the iPad has a front facing camera as well. This will make it a Facetime device, which is critical as Facetime is still a proprietary "on-Net" feature. If you happen to own an iPhone4 you will have noticed that there are just not enough iPhone4 users out there yet to really take advantage of Facetime. This will and has to change.
Facetime will continue to be an "Apple - World" network-feature, perfectly designed to work as a viral marketing scheme. It works between iMacs, Iphone4s (NOW ipod Touches) and SOON iPADs. That will be it.
This way Apple positions itself again successfully at the forefront of consumer electronics innovation. This very week (beginning of September) the IFA Consumer Electronics Show in Berlin [practically the german equivalent of the CES] demonstrates a massive lineup of "iPad Killers" or rather "wanna-be´s". Android is a challenge, no doubt - and Samsung is most aggressive with tabled PC offerings.
However if you look closer at hybrid TV´s, internet connected TVs, different Tivo-like STB concepts and compare that to the clear statements that Steve Jobs has made regarding what they learned from a 4 year mediocre Apple-TV performance and acceptence you will find that Apple is again just one major step further ahead:
The new Apple TV includes a major paradigm shift: Is has no more local storage, it is no longer a syncing device, it does no longer support purchasing content on the TV.
At 99$, I predict, it will be a big hit this time and Steve will no longer call it a "hobby" next year.While the majority of players at the IFA believes in TVs and STBs with large hard disks [the "TIVO concept"], Apple now believes in a pure streaming concept for the living room.
However, Apple believes (and I agree) that People don´t want another computer in the living room, they don´t want to manage media on yet another device.
The way this streaming is made to work, the extreme ease of use and integration with other products of the familiy is again making all the difference.
Watching a show on the iPad or iPod touch, and the continuing this on the big screen TV has never been so easy and straight forward. Touching the loudness button offers a "stream this on Apple TV" option. Hitting it will instantly continue to play the media on the big screen. As simple as that.
None of any of the displayed products at IFA 2010 come anywhere close.
This is the reason why I have again upgraded the price target for Apple stock on the TREFIS DCF model:
It is now set on 327$ as a price target, which is still rather conservative.
Optimistically Apple is going to be a 500$ company within the next 36 months.
That means the best way to finance your next Apple product is simply to buy some stock. I.e. if you buy only 50 shares of Apple stock, an increase of of only 10$ USD buys you an iPad. It is that simple!.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
The complete bottle vanish - and more mindboggling magic
Finally, a multi-month project has gone online: It´s called "Moo-Magic" and is effectively a magic shop.
That means it targets people who seriously aim to perform professional illusions in front of an audience, or simply just to amaze friends.
By definition a "Magic Shop" reveals trick secrets and as such contradicts the unspoken rule to "never reveal a magic trick secret". On the other hand if no trick would have been ever revealed or taught, professional magic skill would be extinct.
The problem really is the ubiquity of the intenet and more so the "everybody publishes everything" trend on Youtube - with freely available information of everything and about everything at your fingertips the world will never be same - in the small scale the awe of magic illusions will be diminished in the large scale countries with restrictive policies of what you are supposed to read or to know (like China, Iraq etc.) will fail in the long run.
Now enjoy one of my absolute favorite illusions and DO NOT BUY the secret if you do not consider yourself to be a stage performing artist.
Watch the Magic Illusion on Youtube
That means it targets people who seriously aim to perform professional illusions in front of an audience, or simply just to amaze friends.
By definition a "Magic Shop" reveals trick secrets and as such contradicts the unspoken rule to "never reveal a magic trick secret". On the other hand if no trick would have been ever revealed or taught, professional magic skill would be extinct.
The problem really is the ubiquity of the intenet and more so the "everybody publishes everything" trend on Youtube - with freely available information of everything and about everything at your fingertips the world will never be same - in the small scale the awe of magic illusions will be diminished in the large scale countries with restrictive policies of what you are supposed to read or to know (like China, Iraq etc.) will fail in the long run.
Now enjoy one of my absolute favorite illusions and DO NOT BUY the secret if you do not consider yourself to be a stage performing artist.
Watch the Magic Illusion on Youtube
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